As of 2026-11-14, across 420 qualified hitters with at least 150 plate appearances, the unluckiest is Ke'Bryan Hayes — an expected wOBA of .272 against an actual wOBA of .200, a −.072 gap (n=260 PA). At the other end, Brendan Donovan has out-produced their contact most, hitting .366 on a .283 expected mark (+.083).
Largest shortfall of actual wOBA below expected wOBA — contact quality the results have not yet rewarded.
Largest surplus of actual wOBA above expected wOBA — results running ahead of the underlying contact.
Each hitter's expected wOBA is estimated from the quality of their contact and compared with their actual wOBA. The gap is the luck signal. Only hitters with at least 150 plate appearances are ranked, and the board refreshes nightly. See the live, fully sortable version on the Lucky / Unlucky board, or the full methodology.
Ke'Bryan Hayes has the largest negative gap between expected and actual wOBA as of 2026-11-14: an xwOBA of .272 versus a wOBA of .200 (−.072, n=260 PA).
It is the gap between a hitter's expected wOBA — what their contact quality (exit velocity and launch angle) typically yields — and their actual wOBA. A negative gap means worse results than the contact warrants; a positive gap means better.
Expected stats tend to be more predictive of future production than past results, so hitters underperforming their xwOBA are statistical candidates for improvement. It is a tendency across large samples, not a guarantee for any individual.